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Many of the greatest minds at the major investment banks around the world have a difficult time predicting exactly what an economic release will ultimately end up being. They have models that take many different aspects into account, but can still be embarrassingly wrong in their predictions; hence the reason that markets move so violently after important economic releases.

If the consensus fails to predict the final result, the market then usually moves in the direction of the actual result — meaning that if it was better than consensus, a positive reaction unfolds and vice versa for a less-than-consensus result. The trick to trading the fundamental aspect of economic releases is to determine when you want to make your commitment. Do you trade before or after the figure is released? Both have their merits and their detractions.

If you trade well before the release, you can try to take advantage of the flow toward the consensus expectation, but other fundamental events around the world can impact the market more than the consensus read.

Trading moments before the economic release means that you have an opinion on whether the actual release will be better or worse than the consensus, but you could be dreadfully wrong and risk large losses on essentially a coin flip. Trading moments after the economic release means that you will be trying to establish a position in a low-volume market which presents the challenge of getting your desired price.

These tensions or conflicts can have an adverse impact on tradable goods by changing the supply or even the demand for certain products. For instance, increased conflict in the Middle East can put a strain on the supply of oil which then makes the price increase. Being able to properly predict how these events will conclude may be a way to get ahead of the market with your fundamental perspective.

For instance, at the end of the calendar year many investors will sell equities that have declined throughout the year in order to claim capital losses on their taxes. Sometimes it may be beneficial to exit positions before the year-end selloff begins. Please let us know how you would like to proceed. Under pressure, The RSI is mixed to bearish. The upside prevails, The RSI is mixed to bullish. Under pressure, The RSI lacks upward momentum. The RSI is overbought our pivot point stands at 1.

This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting uptrend r just overbought and that therefore a correction and could shape look for bearish divergence in this case.

The MACD is positive and above its. Continuation of the rebound, The RSI shows upside momentum. Key resistance at Under pressure, The pair has validated a Rising Wedge: The bias remains bullish, The pair is bullish channel in place since bottom.

The downside prevails, The pair remains on the downside, challenging the lower boundary of a bearish channel in place since June. The downside prevails, As long as 0. The bias remains bullish, The RSI shows upside momentum. The upside prevails, A support base at 0. Further advance, The pair has broken above a decline trend line in place since April. The upside prevails, The RSI is above The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive.

Moreover, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50 MAs respectively at 1.


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